Tropical Storm EMILIA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  25(42)   5(47)   1(48)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   1(16)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)   2(20)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 146N 1049W 34 70   7(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 146N 1049W 50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 146N 1049W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 158N 1064W 34  5  47(52)  10(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 24 158N 1064W 50  X   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 24 158N 1064W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 168N 1080W 34  1  11(12)  34(46)   9(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 36 168N 1080W 50  X   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 168N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 177N 1094W 34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)  11(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 48 177N 1094W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 48 177N 1094W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 195N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  23(31)   9(40)   2(42)
 72 195N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 72 195N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 210N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)
 96 210N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 96 210N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 230N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
120 230N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 230N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      60      60      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN