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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  10(23)   2(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 133N 1036W 34 15   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 12 133N 1036W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 133N 1036W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 145N 1050W 34  1  21(22)   9(31)   2(33)   1(34)   X(34)   1(35)
 24 145N 1050W 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 145N 1050W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 155N 1065W 34  X   4( 4)  22(26)   9(35)   3(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 36 155N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 155N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 165N 1080W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  17(25)   8(33)   1(34)   1(35)
 48 165N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 48 165N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 180N 1100W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   7(28)   2(30)
 72 180N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 180N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 200N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)
 96 200N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 96 200N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 220N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
120 220N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 220N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      40      45      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC