Tropical Depression EMILIA

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006
 
EMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I
OVERPASS.  SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
IN LESS THAN 36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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