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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER.  THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55
KT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS
AND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS.
 
A 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST
THAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE
LOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC