ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS NEAR-HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL. A BLEND OF CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB... AFWA...AND CIMSS' ADT GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHICH IS UTILIZED HERE. EMILIA'S MOTION IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. EMILIA IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS DECAY SHORTLY AS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. ADDITIONALLY... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EMILIA'S WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY...EMILIA'S NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS BEING CAUSED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AS EMILIA WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. EMILIA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 24.0N 112.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 25.2N 113.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC