ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE TO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST PERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC