ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85C. WHILE A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0232Z SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WITH 35-KT WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EMILIA IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE GFS...WHICH TURNS EMILIA MORE WESTWARD AND IS THE LEFT OUTLIER OF THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THE GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT EMILIA IS UNDER 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IF CORRECT SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO PEAK AT 50 KT IN 48 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 104.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC