ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE WARM OCEAN AND THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL ONLY SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING... AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONSORTIUM OF THE GFDL-NOGAPS-ECMWF MODELS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.7N 103.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC