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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR. DESPITE THE WARM OCEAN AND THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE
SHEAR...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL ONLY SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...  
AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL. 

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONSORTIUM OF THE GFDL-NOGAPS-ECMWF MODELS BASED ON THE
FACT THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 12.7N 103.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC