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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  2   5( 7)   9(16)   5(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 145W       34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   7(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   2(18)
BUOY 50004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 165N 1412W 34 95   2(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 165N 1412W 50 74   9(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 165N 1412W 64 39  13(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 169N 1428W 34 24  57(81)   6(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 169N 1428W 50  3  44(47)   9(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 169N 1428W 64  1  20(21)   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 173N 1445W 34  2  27(29)  30(59)   8(67)   2(69)   X(69)   1(70)
 36 173N 1445W 50  X   6( 6)  21(27)   5(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 173N 1445W 64  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 177N 1462W 34  X   5( 5)  22(27)  17(44)   9(53)   1(54)   X(54)
 48 177N 1462W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 48 177N 1462W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 185N 1500W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  21(25)   6(31)   1(32)
 72 185N 1500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 72 185N 1500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 195N 1540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)
 96 195N 1540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 96 195N 1540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 210N 1585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
120 210N 1585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 210N 1585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     75      65      60      55      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC