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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   6(15)   2(17)   X(17)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)  11(18)   3(21)   1(22)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 157N 1388W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 157N 1388W 50 81   6(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 157N 1388W 64 43  16(59)   X(59)   X(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
 24 162N 1404W 34 43  44(87)   4(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 162N 1404W 50  5  47(52)   7(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 162N 1404W 64  1  25(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 36 167N 1418W 34  3  41(44)  23(67)   4(71)   3(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 36 167N 1418W 50  X  11(11)  20(31)   4(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 36 167N 1418W 64  X   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 48 172N 1430W 34  2  11(13)  27(40)  11(51)   6(57)   1(58)   1(59)
 48 172N 1430W 50  X   2( 2)   9(11)   8(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 48 172N 1430W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 181N 1457W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)  17(28)   6(34)   1(35)
 72 181N 1457W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 72 181N 1457W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 193N 1495W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)
 96 193N 1495W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 96 193N 1495W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 205N 1545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
120 205N 1545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 205N 1545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     80      70      60      55      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC