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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1335W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 143N 1335W 50 89   6(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 143N 1335W 64 68  12(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 
 24 148N 1354W 34 26  62(88)   6(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 148N 1354W 50  4  60(64)  10(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 24 148N 1354W 64  1  40(41)  10(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 36 153N 1374W 34  2  27(29)  44(73)   8(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 153N 1374W 50  X   7( 7)  37(44)   8(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 153N 1374W 64  X   2( 2)  22(24)   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)
 
 48 158N 1390W 34  X   4( 4)  34(38)  21(59)  10(69)   1(70)   1(71)
 48 158N 1390W 50  X   X( X)  14(14)  17(31)   6(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 48 158N 1390W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 
 72 168N 1412W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)  19(41)   6(47)   1(48)
 72 168N 1412W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   X(18)
 72 168N 1412W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 180N 1435W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   9(23)   3(26)
 96 180N 1435W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 96 180N 1435W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 195N 1485W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
120 195N 1485W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 195N 1485W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    115    105      95      85      70      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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