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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 138N 1289W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 138N 1289W 50 92   4(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 138N 1289W 64 72  10(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
 24 142N 1307W 34 34  54(88)   5(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 142N 1307W 50  6  61(67)   8(75)   1(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 24 142N 1307W 64  1  42(43)  10(53)   X(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
 36 146N 1323W 34  2  41(43)  31(74)   7(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 146N 1323W 50  X  15(15)  33(48)   7(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 36 146N 1323W 64  X   5( 5)  21(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 48 150N 1339W 34  1   7( 8)  31(39)  19(58)   8(66)   X(66)   1(67)
 48 150N 1339W 50  X   1( 1)  14(15)  14(29)   6(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 48 150N 1339W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 160N 1360W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  15(22)  14(36)   4(40)   X(40)
 72 160N 1360W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 72 160N 1360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 175N 1380W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   1(18)
 96 175N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 175N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 195N 1400W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
120 195N 1400W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 195N 1400W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    120    110      95      80      60      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC