| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane DANIEL (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 131N 1246W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 131N 1246W 50 85   7(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 131N 1246W 64 70  10(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 
 24 136N 1261W 34 54  37(91)   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 136N 1261W 50  7  54(61)  10(71)   1(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 24 136N 1261W 64  2  41(43)  11(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
 36 141N 1279W 34  2  35(37)  38(75)   8(83)   2(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 36 141N 1279W 50  X   9( 9)  35(44)   9(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 141N 1279W 64  X   3( 3)  24(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 48 146N 1296W 34  X   6( 6)  32(38)  22(60)  10(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 48 146N 1296W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  16(28)   7(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 48 146N 1296W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 
 72 155N 1330W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  23(32)   6(38)   1(39)
 72 155N 1330W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 155N 1330W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 165N 1355W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)   2(19)
 96 165N 1355W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 165N 1355W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 180N 1375W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
120 180N 1375W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 180N 1375W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    120    110     100      85      65      55      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN