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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 124N 1231W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 124N 1231W 50 86   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 124N 1231W 64 64  12(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
 24 130N 1246W 34 49  41(90)   6(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 130N 1246W 50  6  58(64)  11(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 130N 1246W 64  2  40(42)  11(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
 36 135N 1263W 34  2  37(39)  37(76)   9(85)   3(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 36 135N 1263W 50  X  11(11)  37(48)  10(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 36 135N 1263W 64  X   4( 4)  25(29)   8(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 48 140N 1280W 34  X   6( 6)  32(38)  26(64)  11(75)   1(76)   X(76)
 48 140N 1280W 50  X   X( X)  13(13)  21(34)   9(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 48 140N 1280W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 
 72 150N 1310W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  28(43)   6(49)   1(50)
 72 150N 1310W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   3(20)   X(20)
 72 150N 1310W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 160N 1340W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  12(23)   2(25)
 96 160N 1340W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 96 160N 1340W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 170N 1370W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
120 170N 1370W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 170N 1370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    110    115     110     100      80      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC