Hurricane DANIEL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 120N 1207W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 120N 1207W 50 80   9(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 12 120N 1207W 64 47  16(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
 24 124N 1223W 34 40  48(88)   6(94)   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 124N 1223W 50  4  55(59)  10(69)   2(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 124N 1223W 64  1  32(33)  11(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
 36 128N 1239W 34  2  39(41)  35(76)   8(84)   3(87)   X(87)   1(88)
 36 128N 1239W 50  X  11(11)  35(46)  10(56)   3(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 128N 1239W 64  X   3( 3)  21(24)   9(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 48 132N 1258W 34  X   5( 5)  28(33)  30(63)  13(76)   1(77)   X(77)
 48 132N 1258W 50  X   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)  11(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 48 132N 1258W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 
 72 140N 1295W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  33(41)   9(50)   2(52)
 72 140N 1295W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   4(21)   X(21)
 72 140N 1295W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 148N 1330W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   3(27)
 96 148N 1330W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 96 148N 1330W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 160N 1360W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
120 160N 1360W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 160N 1360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95    105     105     100      85      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN