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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 120N 1199W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 120N 1199W 50 76  10(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 120N 1199W 64 38  16(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 24 122N 1215W 34 36  50(86)   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 122N 1215W 50  4  52(56)  12(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 122N 1215W 64  1  26(27)  11(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
 36 126N 1233W 34  2  31(33)  41(74)   9(83)   4(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 126N 1233W 50  X   7( 7)  38(45)  10(55)   4(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 126N 1233W 64  X   2( 2)  20(22)   9(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 48 130N 1250W 34  1   4( 5)  32(37)  28(65)  14(79)   2(81)   X(81)
 48 130N 1250W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  23(35)  12(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 48 130N 1250W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   9(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 
 72 137N 1285W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  38(48)  11(59)   2(61)
 72 137N 1285W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   7(28)   X(28)
 72 137N 1285W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 
 
 96 145N 1320W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)   4(36)
 96 145N 1320W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)
 96 145N 1320W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
120 155N 1355W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
120 155N 1355W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
120 155N 1355W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     90     100     100     100      85      70
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC