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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 123N 1154W 34 81   9(90)   X(90)   X(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 123N 1154W 50 31  17(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 123N 1154W 64  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 123N 1173W 34  4  65(69)  12(81)   3(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)
 24 123N 1173W 50  X  30(30)  13(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 123N 1173W 64  X  11(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 36 123N 1189W 34  1  24(25)  38(63)  13(76)   5(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 123N 1189W 50  X   4( 4)  25(29)  12(41)   2(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 36 123N 1189W 64  X   1( 1)  11(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 124N 1207W 34  X   3( 3)  25(28)  28(56)  16(72)   3(75)   X(75)
 48 124N 1207W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)  11(37)   1(38)   1(39)
 48 124N 1207W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 
 72 128N 1235W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  32(48)  12(60)   2(62)
 72 128N 1235W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   8(28)   1(29)
 72 128N 1235W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 
 
 96 135N 1260W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  20(39)   7(46)
 96 135N 1260W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   3(17)
 96 135N 1260W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
 
120 140N 1290W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  10(25)
120 140N 1290W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
120 140N 1290W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     65      75      85      95      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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