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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
2100 UTC MON JUL 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 124N 1141W 34 64  16(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 12 124N 1141W 50 18  12(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 12 124N 1141W 64  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 124N 1160W 34  1  58(59)  14(73)   3(76)   1(77)   X(77)   1(78)
 24 124N 1160W 50  X  22(22)  12(34)   2(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 124N 1160W 64  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 124N 1178W 34  X  12(12)  45(57)  11(68)   7(75)   1(76)   X(76)
 36 124N 1178W 50  X   2( 2)  22(24)  10(34)   5(39)   X(39)   1(40)
 36 124N 1178W 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
 48 124N 1191W 34  X   2( 2)  30(32)  21(53)  17(70)   3(73)   X(73)
 48 124N 1191W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  12(36)   1(37)   1(38)
 48 124N 1191W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 127N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  34(48)  11(59)   3(62)
 72 127N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   7(27)   2(29)
 72 127N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
 
 
 96 132N 1247W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  22(39)   7(46)
 96 132N 1247W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)
 96 132N 1247W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
 
120 140N 1280W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  11(25)
120 140N 1280W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
120 140N 1280W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     60      70      80      95      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC