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Hurricane DANIEL


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HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 122.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 122.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
 
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