ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 0100 UTC. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A SYMMETRICAL PRESENTATION WITH FAIRLY COLD CENTRAL CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DO NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOVER AROUND 25 DEG C...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS DO WARM A LITTLE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THE EVOLUTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON DANIEL IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. CURRENTLY...UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND WEAK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE SPREADING WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...BUT THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST INDICATES THAT...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY FORECASTING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL FLOWS. HOWEVER IF THE GFS SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD REMAIN LOW AND THE MAIN FACTORS THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF DANIEL WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...285/13. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY CALL FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS SHOWS DANIEL MAKING LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS AFTER CROSSING 140W...AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 30N150W MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION A FEW DAYS FROM NOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE...ALBEIT A NARROW ONE...WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE LOW AND DANIEL SO THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS. DANIEL HAS ALMOST REACHED 140W LONGITUDE...AND IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN BY 1200 UTC TODAY. THEREFORE THE NEXT...1500 UTC...ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCMCP1. PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1. TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCDCP1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.1N 139.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC