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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 0100 UTC. 
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A SYMMETRICAL PRESENTATION WITH
FAIRLY COLD CENTRAL CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT.  

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOVER AROUND 25 DEG
C...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS DO WARM A LITTLE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MASS AND LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  ALSO...THE EVOLUTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON DANIEL IS
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR.  CURRENTLY...UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND WEAK
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE SPREADING
WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...BUT THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST
INDICATES THAT...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH DANIEL AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY
FORECASTING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL FLOWS.  HOWEVER IF THE GFS
SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD REMAIN LOW AND THE
MAIN FACTORS THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF DANIEL WILL BE
THERMODYNAMIC.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...285/13.  DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY CALL FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFS SHOWS
DANIEL MAKING LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS AFTER CROSSING 140W...AND
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 4-5 DAYS.  THIS SOLUTION
CANNOT BE CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY
THAT DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF 30N150W MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION A FEW DAYS FROM NOW.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF
A RIDGE...ALBEIT A NARROW ONE...WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE LOW AND
DANIEL SO THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

DANIEL HAS ALMOST REACHED 140W LONGITUDE...AND IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN BY 1200 UTC TODAY.  THEREFORE
THE NEXT...1500 UTC...ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HNLTCMCP1.  PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA31 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1.  TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER HNLTCDCP1.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 16.1N 139.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC