Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DANIEL HAS DECAYED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE FILLING IN AND THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...5.0/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE
WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE.  DANIEL
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  OTHER POTENTIAL PLAYERS
IN THE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH ABOUT 500 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
FORMER TWO.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INITIALIZE THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL AS A VERY STRONG FEATURE...AND COUPLED WITH A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BRING DANIEL TO A
DEAD STOP WITHIN 24 HOURS RIGHT AROUND 140W.  THEY THEN TAKE DANIEL
WESTWARD AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL.  THIS RESULTS A MORE OR LESS CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE FASTER TO BE
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  TO MY EYE...THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS
INITIALIZATION.  FURTHERMORE...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
OUTPERFORMED THE COMPETITION BY A WIDE MARGIN FOR DANIEL SO FAR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
DANIEL IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 25C...BUT THEY WON'T BE
GETTING MUCH COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD.  HOWEVER...DANIEL WILL BE
INCREASINGLY INGESTING STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SO A CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH DANIEL...AND THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS 200 MB FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR COULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS DANIEL APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. 
CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS.  

IF DANIEL FOLLOWS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER WOULD ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE WITH
THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TOMORROW MORNING. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.8N 138.7W    95 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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