Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE. 
HOWEVER...DUE TO DVORAK INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT AND IT APPEARS THAT 
DANIEL HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED SLOW WEAKENING.

A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
NEAR 28N139W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE HURRICANE WEST 
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO DECELERATE. 18Z
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE
AGAIN THE GFDL SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS
AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND INDEED...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT OVERALL THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE OUTLIER IS THE UKMET...
WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96
AND 120 HOURS. 

DANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER FOR A BIT LONGER
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH
48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK LATER
IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER 25C WATER FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A 1445 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 14.0N 131.9W   125 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W    95 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
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