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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

DESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING...
TENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES
DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE
HURRICANE.  EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND
WARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
BETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT. 
 
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.  DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
MUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  BEYOND
THREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING
TROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W   125 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W   120 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W   110 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W    95 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W    80 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC