ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL SOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC