Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW
ABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL
SOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
FORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
THE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING
COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR
AVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3
HOURS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER
GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W   110 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
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