ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT DANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD BECOME PREDOMINANT. REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 115 KT. DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF DANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 105 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC