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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006
 
THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL WITH
OUTER BANDING FEATURES.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 115 KT...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR AVERAGE RAW
ADT FROM UW/CIMSS IS T6.6...OR 130 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH NO WELL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALLS
APPARENT...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 24-36
HOURS DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL DECAY
IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE HEADING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY
96 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
SLOWS AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 13.1N 124.3W   120 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W   125 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W    85 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC