Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SYMMETRIC ANNULAR-
TYPE HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE ABOUT 25-30 NM IN 
DIAMETER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM
AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. RECENT RAW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND CIMSS ARE BETWEEN T6.0 AND 6.5...115 TO 127 KT. 
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE IF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GAINING SOME LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO HAVE
TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
285/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND DANIEL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD...AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE
GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET KEEP ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF HURRICANE TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DISCOUNTS THE GFDL SOLUTION.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.  IT
IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO...REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...SO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  DUE TO DANIEL'S
ANNULAR APPEARANCE IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.  HOWEVER...AFTER 72 HOURS DANIEL SHOULD BE TRAVERSING
OVER SUB 26 DEGREE WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BE A BIT FASTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 12.5N 122.6W   110 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W   115 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W   105 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W    90 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
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