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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006
 
AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT DANIEL WAS DEVELOPING A
BANDING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A WARM
SPOT...INDICATING POSSIBLE PIN HOLE EYE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CORE
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
AND THE ODT IS 85 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  
THE GFDL AND A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIEL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S TRACK CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS CHANGE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BIT SLOWER. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIEL TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 11.8N 119.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 11.8N 120.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 121.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 123.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 125.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 13.6N 129.3W    90 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC