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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
AND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. 1200 UTC SATELLITE BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...65 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 63 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHERE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS APPARENT. ADDITIONALLY...DANIEL
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING.  SINCE
FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY DIFFICULT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY MARCH TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 48 HOURS. WHILE THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 100 KT. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN
EYE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO
COMMENCE.
 
DANIEL CONTINUES ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OR 270/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A
GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 12.2N 116.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC