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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
0300 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 61  28(89)   1(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ISLA CLARION   50  9  38(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ISLA CLARION   64  3  17(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 184N 1136W 34 95   2(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 184N 1136W 50 61  12(73)   X(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 184N 1136W 64 35   8(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
 24 185N 1155W 34 19  52(71)   7(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 185N 1155W 50  1  27(28)   6(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 185N 1155W 64  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 36 186N 1174W 34  2  18(20)  26(46)   6(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 186N 1174W 50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 186N 1174W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 188N 1193W 34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  13(28)   6(34)   1(35)   X(35)
 48 188N 1193W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 188N 1193W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 195N 1225W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   3(18)   X(18)
 72 195N 1225W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 72 195N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 200N 1250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 96 200N 1250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 200N 1250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 205N 1275W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 205N 1275W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 205N 1275W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     60      50      45      40      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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