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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 34  47(81)   5(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ISLA CLARION   50  2  38(40)   6(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
ISLA CLARION   64  X  16(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 184N 1131W 34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 184N 1131W 50 59  14(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 184N 1131W 64 31  10(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
 24 185N 1150W 34 19  57(76)   7(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 24 185N 1150W 50  1  33(34)   8(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 185N 1150W 64  X  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 36 186N 1167W 34  2  28(30)  27(57)   7(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 186N 1167W 50  X   3( 3)  16(19)   4(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 36 186N 1167W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 185N 1185W 34  1   4( 5)  20(25)  17(42)   6(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 48 185N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 185N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 190N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   3(24)   1(25)
 72 190N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 190N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 195N 1245W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 96 195N 1245W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 195N 1245W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1270W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
120 200N 1270W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 200N 1270W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     65      60      55      45      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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