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Hurricane CARLOTTA (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
1500 UTC THU JUL 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 54   2(56)   X(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  8  63(71)   8(79)   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
ISLA CLARION   50  1  28(29)   9(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ISLA CLARION   64  X  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 177N 1123W 34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 177N 1123W 50 62  12(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 177N 1123W 64 25   9(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 24 180N 1147W 34  9  66(75)   7(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 180N 1147W 50  1  32(33)   8(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 24 180N 1147W 64  X  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 180N 1165W 34  2  24(26)  31(57)   6(63)   2(65)   1(66)   X(66)
 36 180N 1165W 50  X   4( 4)  17(21)   4(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 180N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 182N 1180W 34  X   6( 6)  23(29)  13(42)   7(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 48 182N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 182N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 185N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  16(24)   4(28)   1(29)
 72 185N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 185N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 190N 1235W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   1(15)
 96 190N 1235W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 190N 1235W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1265W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
120 200N 1265W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 200N 1265W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     65      60      55      50      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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