Hurricane CARLOTTA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 30 15(45) 2(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 25(27) 38(65) 10(75) 5(80) X(80) X(80)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 4( 4) 27(31) 10(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 169N 1112W 34 96 2(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 169N 1112W 50 75 12(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
12 169N 1112W 64 45 19(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
24 173N 1128W 34 42 46(88) 6(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
24 173N 1128W 50 4 55(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72)
24 173N 1128W 64 1 36(37) 12(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
36 175N 1145W 34 3 39(42) 34(76) 8(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87)
36 175N 1145W 50 X 10(10) 35(45) 9(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57)
36 175N 1145W 64 X 4( 4) 23(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37)
48 175N 1160W 34 1 9(10) 35(45) 20(65) 10(75) 1(76) X(76)
48 175N 1160W 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43)
48 175N 1160W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24)
72 180N 1190W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 26(43) 5(48) 1(49)
72 180N 1190W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20)
72 180N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
96 185N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 1(20)
96 185N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
96 185N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 195N 1250W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
120 195N 1250W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 195N 1250W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85 100 100 95 75 50 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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