ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 15(17) 16(33) 5(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 24(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 158N 1080W 34 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 158N 1080W 50 44 19(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
12 158N 1080W 64 11 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
24 163N 1100W 34 23 61(84) 6(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
24 163N 1100W 50 1 45(46) 13(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61)
24 163N 1100W 64 X 18(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
36 167N 1120W 34 2 29(31) 40(71) 9(80) 3(83) X(83) X(83)
36 167N 1120W 50 X 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
36 167N 1120W 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
48 170N 1140W 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 26(58) 12(70) X(70) 1(71)
48 170N 1140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 7(34) X(34) 1(35)
48 170N 1140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
72 175N 1170W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 25(40) 5(45) 1(46)
72 175N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17)
72 175N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
96 180N 1195W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 1(24)
96 180N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
96 180N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 190N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
120 190N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 190N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 75 80 80 70 50 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC