ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 7(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 23(44) 2(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 150N 1070W 34 75 13(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 12 150N 1070W 50 17 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 12 150N 1070W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 156N 1091W 34 4 67(71) 13(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 24 156N 1091W 50 X 30(30) 13(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 24 156N 1091W 64 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 36 162N 1113W 34 X 17(17) 48(65) 12(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) 36 162N 1113W 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) 36 162N 1113W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 48 165N 1132W 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 27(57) 13(70) 1(71) X(71) 48 165N 1132W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 9(34) X(34) X(34) 48 165N 1132W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) 72 170N 1165W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 29(41) 7(48) X(48) 72 170N 1165W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) 72 170N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 96 180N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 2(27) 96 180N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 96 180N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 190N 1210W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 120 190N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 190N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 65 75 80 75 55 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC