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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   4( 4)  15(19)   7(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)  23(44)   2(46)   X(46)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 150N 1070W 34 75  13(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 150N 1070W 50 17  17(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 12 150N 1070W 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 156N 1091W 34  4  67(71)  13(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 156N 1091W 50  X  30(30)  13(43)   1(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 156N 1091W 64  X  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 36 162N 1113W 34  X  17(17)  48(65)  12(77)   4(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 162N 1113W 50  X   2( 2)  28(30)  10(40)   2(42)   1(43)   X(43)
 36 162N 1113W 64  X   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 165N 1132W 34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  27(57)  13(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 48 165N 1132W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   9(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 48 165N 1132W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 
 72 170N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  29(41)   7(48)   X(48)
 72 170N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   3(18)   X(18)
 72 170N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 180N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  10(25)   2(27)
 96 180N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 96 180N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 190N 1210W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
120 190N 1210W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
120 190N 1210W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     65      75      80      75      55      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC