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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......105NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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