Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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