Tropical Depression CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006
 
DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT. HOWEVER...THE INABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AND BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/10. OWING TO ITS NOW
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STRUCTURE...CARLOTTA WILL BE STEERED BY THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
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