Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

CARLOTTA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VIA THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY... C.I. ... NUMBERS ARE INVARIABLY TOO
HIGH IN THESE CASES.  USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T- AND C.I. NUMBERS
USUALLY GIVES A MORE REASONABLE RESULT.  TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE
VALUES FROM THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION GIVES 40 KT...AND EVEN THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.  IN ANY EVENT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN
OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.9N 120.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 122.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 125.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER PASCH
 
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