Hurricane CARLOTTA

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA CONTINUE TO WARM INDICATING GRADUAL
WEAKENING. STILL...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IMPLYING CARLOTTA IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE
STATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB TO 4.0 OR 65 KT FROM
AFWA.  IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE CARLOTTA BEING A 77 KT HURRICANE GIVEN
THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT IN LINE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAW ODT VALUES.  WHILE SATELLITE BASED
SST ESTIMATES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MARGINALLY WARM WATER IN THE
VICINITY OF CARLOTTA...THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING MAKING
CARLOTTA A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.     
 
CARLOTTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/09. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IMPLIES
THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW CARLOTTA CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME POLEWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 24
TO 36 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIES ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A DUE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH THE BAM
SHALLOW. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.8N 117.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 
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