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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

AFTER ITS UNEXPECTED COMEBACK YESTERDAY EVENING...CARLOTTA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. 
IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C NEAR ITS CENTER.  HOWEVER...AN
EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES....NOR WAS AN EYE
EVIDENT ON A 0316 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0316 UTC.  NONETHELESS...
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH WIND SPEED ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
65 TO 77 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE BUT IT IS FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED OVER CARLOTTA'S WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN
FACT...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DAILY NCEP SST
ANALYSES SHOW A PATCH OF UNUSUALLY COOL WATERS...NEAR 21 DEG C...IN
THE VICINITY OF 19N 125W.  THIS COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CARLOTTA MIGHT DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/9.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD
IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW A
SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PREDICT A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL IS PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF CARLOTTA IN
THESE MODELS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHEREAS THIS VORTEX
INTERACTION MAY INDEED OCCUR...WE WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...OR OF COURSE A SIGNIFICANT LEFT
TURN...BEFORE SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS A MAINLY
WESTWARD TRACK... WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 117.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.3N 119.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 123.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC