Hurricane CARLOTTA
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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...CARLOTTA HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR
THE CENTER...AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND ARE 65
KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...CARLOTTA IS UPGRADED TO A
70-KT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS POOR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE STORM IS ALSO
APPROACHING THE NORMAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
STAY PRESENT NORTH OF CARLOTTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH CAUSED BY THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THE WESTWARD MOTION AS
CARLOTTA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE
NOGAPS CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL CALLS FOR A
SOUTHWARD MOTION...THE UKMET A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
AND THE BAMS A FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD MOTION OF
6-8 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
CARLOTTA SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A
FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES FROM NCEP IN WASHINGTON DC SHOW A
COLD WATER EDDY AHEAD OF CARLOTTA...AND IF THE STORM PASSES OVER
THIS FEATURES IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.9N 115.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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