Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT
60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS
INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN
AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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