ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0339 UTC STILL SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL WITH A WEAKER REFLECTION AT 37 GHZ. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A POORLY-FORECAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG ABOUT 117W IS STILL UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE AND DISRUPTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IN THE INNER CORE. OCCASIONALLY A WARM SPOT TRIES TO EMERGE FROM WITHIN THE RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE FEATURE IS SHORT-LIVED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST WIND SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SINCE COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TOO QUICKLY AND SSTS ARE DROPPING...IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO SHIPS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. CARLOTTA HAS ALSO SLOWED...MOVING ABOUT 275/7. PERHAPS THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION HAS TRULY COMMENCED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND IS BETWEEN CONU AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A 0206 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.1N 112.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.2N 114.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 116.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 118.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 18.8N 120.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC