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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH
CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS AT 0339 UTC STILL SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL
WITH A WEAKER REFLECTION AT 37 GHZ. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A
POORLY-FORECAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG ABOUT 117W IS STILL
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE AND DISRUPTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IN THE INNER CORE. OCCASIONALLY A WARM
SPOT TRIES TO EMERGE FROM WITHIN THE RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
BUT THE FEATURE IS SHORT-LIVED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST WIND SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SINCE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TOO
QUICKLY AND SSTS ARE DROPPING...IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST IS
FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO SHIPS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
MORE TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. CARLOTTA HAS ALSO
SLOWED...MOVING ABOUT 275/7. PERHAPS THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD
MOTION HAS TRULY COMMENCED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND IS BETWEEN CONU
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A 0206 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 18.1N 112.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.2N 114.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 116.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N 118.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.8N 120.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC