ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING THE BURST IS TURNING INTO A BANDING FEATURE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA AND INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER PROVIDING WEAK INITIAL AND FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES SUGGEST THERE IS ABOUT A 40-55% CHANCE OF THE INTENSITY INCREASING BY AT LEAST 25 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR... WARM SSTS NEAR 30C AND IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE CARLOTTA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BEYOND THEN IS LIKELY UNTIL SSTS DECREASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THIS DIMINISHING EFFECT IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE BUD TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0119 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A 0357 UTC TRMM WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS... 285/10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EPAC WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING BUD AT THE EXPENSE OF CARLOTTA AND VICE-VERSA. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME HOWEVER AS A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MEXICO IS LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INDUCING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WEAKENS IN THE EPAC...THOUGH MODELS NOW TEND TO KEEP THE HIGH A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEING A LITTLE NORTH OF CONU. A DISTANT BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC